Breaking down the Wimbledon men's draw

Jun 30

Jun 30 Breaking down the Wimbledon men's draw

People love it when you use headers to break up a piece of writing instead of learning how to use transitions. It's good to do this, and it's good for SEO. We're going to just take this quarter-by-quarter and give some takes as we go.It's hard to be too upset with the way the draw's shaken out for the men. There are a few week quarters, yes, but on the whole we're going to get a bunch of good early matches with the potential for some must-see action starting as early as the fourth round. Everyone's going to focus on Roger Federer's and Rafael Nadal's quarters, but the best tennis is going to be found in other places.

Section 1Top seed: (1) Federer

This draw is neither super kind nor super punishing for the top seed and favorite. Ivo Karlovic, the platonic ideal of a servebot, could be a tricky match in the third round, but Federer's 13-1 against him lifetime and hasn't lost to Karlovic in a decade. Borna Coric beat Federer in the final at Halle a few weeks ago, so that matchup in the fourth round is going to raise a couple of eyebrows. I would actually be a little bit surprised if Coric makes it to the fourth round. Daniil Medvedev and Adrian Mannarino could both take down Coric before he gets to play Federer again.Best first round matchup: Medvedev vs (16) CoricUnseeded player most likely to win quarter: MedvedevWinner: (1) Federer

Section 2Top seed: (8) Kevin Anderson

Hey, you know who's been one of the most consistent performers all year? That's right, it's Kevin Anderson!Anderson has no business being decent, but he is, and here we are. The bad news for Anderson is that he has a host of talented opponents standing in his way. Sam Querrey has been bad this year but has been money at Wimbledon in the recent past. Richard Gasquet has been playing awfully well this year and has a title on grass this season as well. Phillip Kohlschriber and Gilles Muller aren't trash cans either. Anderson is going to be hard pressed to top this group.Best first round matchup: Gael Monfils vs (23) GasquetUnseeded player most likely to win quarter: MullerWinner: (23) Gasquet

Section 3Top Seed: (3) Marin Cilic

If you're looking for players not named Federer or Novak Djokovic to win the title, Cilic should be number one on your list. He's great in best-of-five scenarios and great on grass. The deeper sleeper to win is Milos Raonic, also in this quarter. His health remains a giant question mark, but he's shown more than glimpses of a return to form this season. Those two appear to have little in the way of roadblocks to a potential fourth round matchup that will be appointment viewing.Best first round matchup: (WC) Dennis Kudla vs (17) Lucas PouilleUnseeded player most likely to win quarter: (WC) KudlaWinner: (3) Cilic

Section 4Top seed: (6) Grigor Dimitrov

The biggest name in this draw is, for my money, the most likely player to lose in the first round. Stan Wawrinka just got wiped off the court by Andy Murray, who is two stages past washed. Grigor Dimitrov isn't good, but anything short of a straight-set win over Wawrinka will be a huge disappointment.Keep an eye on Stefanos Tsitsipas in this group as well. He's super young, super talented, and appears to be super good on grass. I'm going to try and avoid talking about John Isner.Best first round matchup: Warinka vs (6) DimitrovUnseeded player most likely to win quarter: None, no one who doesn't have a seed is any good in this quarter, sorry.Winner: (9) Isner

Section 5Top seed: (7) Dominic Thiem

Thiem's not winning this quarter, and I don't think he's going to make it to the fourth round.This may be the best quarter in the draw. Djokovic, who's seeded 12th, is the second-favorite to win the tournament, and I'm buying the hype. There's no one dangerous for him in the first or second round, but to draw Kyle Edmund in the third is unlucky. Edmund's surprised me by keeping the momentum of his semifinal run at the Australian Open going all year. Playing against him in front of a home crowd is not an enviable task. Even the non-seeds in the quarter could make noise, especially Karen Khachanov.Best first round matchup: Khachanov vs FerrerUnseeded player most likely to win quarter: KhachanovWinner: (12) Djokovic

Section 6Top seed: (4) A. Zverev

It's not every day you get a conglomeration of so many incredible talents who are completely combustible in one place. This group is a menagerie of characters, and I love it deeply.Alexander/Sascha Zverev has his moody moments on the court, but he doesn't hold a candle to the rest of the guys here. Damir Dzumhur, who made a deep run just this past week, is a certifiable loony toon. Bernie Tomic, in as a lucky loser, will play, and quite possibly win, a match in this quarter before presumably literally lighting his hair on fire. And, yes, the king himself, Nick Kyrgios, is here and ready to act a fool. If Kyrgios is going to make a quarterfinal at a slam for the first time since 2015, it should be now. This group is soft and Zverev is still an unknown quality in best-of-five scenarios.Best first round matchup: Maximilian Marterer vs (27) DzumhurUnseeded player most likely to win quarter: MartererWinner: (4) Zverev

Section 7Top seed: (5) Juan Martin Del Potro

This is the first of two quarters where there is no sure thing. I'm too unconvinced of Del Potro's health, Goffin's play on grass, and Jack Sock's ability to hit a tennis ball with a tennis racket to think that any of the top seeds are a good bet here. Andy Murray, or the corpse of him, is in this quarter. Denis Shapovalov, the sweet boy, couldn't ask for a better group of seeds to be paired with. The only problem is that his first round opponent, Jeremy Chardy, is actually good. Literally anyone except Jack Sock could win this quarter. It could be Del Po. It could be Goffin. It could be Shapo. I've picked Chardy in one bracket. Take your pick! Who cares!Best first round matchup: Chardy vs (26) Shapovalov or Benoit Paire vs MurrayUnseeded player most likely to win quarter: Chardy.Winner: (26) Shapovalov

Section 8Top seed: (2) Nadal

Nadal at Wimbledon is the furthest thing from a sure thing there is. It is my opinion that anyone who says that Nadal is going to win this tournament should not be commenting on tennis. And yet, his quarter is super mega soft. I guess the door remains open.The other top seed in this quarter, Diego Schwartzman, has literally never won a professional match on grass. There is no one trustworthy on this surface in this quarter. The two players who have anything to show for themselves on grass this year are Mischa Zverev, who just won a title but also it's his first ever ATP title and he's 30, and Alex de Minaur, who is a teen and whose win came on the Challenger Tour.This quarter is awful and I hate it.Best first round matchup: de Minaur vs (29) CecchinatoUnseeded player most likely to win quarter: M. ZverevWinner: (19) Fabio Fognini