An Idiot's Guide to Wimbledon
You know that this format for writing a preview is trite and lame, right?
Hmmm. It’s good. Actually.
Fine. It’s Wimbledon time, I guess. We get to watch Roger Federer waltz to another slam and then everyone retreads the column they’ve written three times in the past six majors. Cool.
I’m going to stop you right there. Roger Federer isn’t going to win this tournament. I mean, he might, but the “Federer or the field” question should be answered with a resounding “the field.” Vegas is already onto him. He's coming in at 7/4 odds to win, which is an implied probability of 36%.Federer’s grass season includes a title in Stuttgart, sure, but look at the performance. He nearly lost to Mischa Zverev in the second round. He should have lost to Nick Kyrgios in the semifinals if Kyrgios didn’t randomly evaporate in the tiebreak after going up a minibreak.In Halle, Federer received one of the cushiest draws you can image. He got to play Matthew Ebden in the quarterfinals and Dennis Kudla, a qualifier, in the semifinals. He played two opponents the whole tournament who are actual ATP-level players. Benoit Paire took a set off Federer in the second round. Borna Coric beat Federer in the final.These are red flags.Federer’s level through the grass season is eerily similar to how he played in Indian Wells back in the winter. Sure, he made the final, but he never looked right. Then he lost to Thanasi Kokkinakis in his first match in Miami and took two months off to recuperate. It’s not good.
So if not Federer, who?
Well. Uh. Let me think.Do you want to believe in Novak Djokovic? After a year spent in the wilderness of injury and/or mental fatigue, Djokovic is playing like a top-ten, maybe even top-five player. He made runs in multiple big clay events and made the final on grass in London two weeks ago.Marin Cilic, the man who beat Djokovic in London, would be a strong choice as well. His clay season was unsurprisingly uninteresting, but with a title on grass this year in his rearview mirror and a generally strong record at Wimbledon in his history, he looks every bit the part of a contender.After those three you find yourself in the land of Guys Who Can’t Play On Grass or Guys Who Are Pretty Bad But Good On Grass.Rafael Nadal? He’s been really bad on grass since his body’s started breaking down.Sascha Zverev? It’s hard to bet on him in best-of-five matches until he proves us wrong. He's also had an injured and bad month of June.Milos Raonic? He’s awful, in awful health, and has a bad record against the best guys on tour, but it's grass.Nick Kyrgios? He’s Nick Kyrgios.Maybe a big server like John Isner makes a run? More likely than not, no, he won’t. He could lose to Steve Johnson.Wimbledon is open, but this is still a slam and this is still tennis in 2018. It isn’t wide open. Federer should still have a significant edge, but it's hard to imagine this playing out like Rafa at the French.
You’ve only been talking about the ATP.
Let’s talk about the WTA then!Serena Williams is back! She’s played only three tournaments this year, but looked pretty good at Roland Garros before a shoulder injury knocked her out. That’s your number one storyline if for no other reason than the fact that it’s Serena and she’s a global star.She’s not your favorite, though.That honor should go to Petra Kvitova. She’s won a whopping five titles this year, leads the WTA in matches won, and has a pair of Wimbledon titles to her name already. I don’t think her hamstring injury that pushed her to withdraw this past week is anything to be worried about.After Kvitova, it’s a bit of a take your pick situation. Want the best player in the world? That’s Simona Halep, who finally got her first slam title at Roland Garros. Want the wild card with a crazy high ceiling? That’s Gabrine Mugurza. Want the big server? How about Karolina Pliskova or Julia Goerges? The WTA is, again, extremely wide open. I really like Kvitova to win it, but there are about 10 names you can talk me in to. I don’t know if Serena Williams is one of them (the bookies have her at 6:1) I do know Elina Svitolina is not one of them.This tournament truly is wide open.
Halep/Konta rematch?
Sorry to whomever rigged the draw; it ain't happening.
What about the Americans? Apparently, that’s what tennis needs is good Americans.
John Isner serves hard, he might do something. Sam Querrey is good here usually. Sloane Stephens could do literally anything. I don’t trust Madison Keys or Coco Vandeweghe. Venus Williams is probably actually done for good now, although she loves playing here.With that out of the way, let’s talk about Jack Sock!He’s ranked 15th in the world! That’s pretty cool! Let’s take a look at his results this year and oh god my screen is covered in blood.A loss in Auckland in his first match of the tournament to noted create-a-player Peter Gojowczyk. A first round loss to Yuichi Sugita at the Australian Open. One win and then a loss to then world number 228, Reilly Opelka, in Delray Beach. A loss to a qualifier, Ernesto Escoedo, in Sock’s first match in Acapulco. One win and then a loss to Feliciano Lopez, age 36, in Indian Wells. Another one win, one loss performance in Miami. Two separate losses on clay to Taylor Fritz, one in the second round in Lyon, one in the quarterfinals of Houston. First round exits to Pablo Cuevas and Daniil Medvedev in Madrid and London. Then, he entered Eastbourne qualifying, not even the main draw, this week. He lost to Daniel Brands. Daniel Brands was ranked 313th in the world. Three. Hundred. Thirteenth.All-in-all, Sock is 5-13 in 2018 with a dazzling 3-9 record against the top 100 in the world (is a 2-4 record against players outside of the top 100 more damning?).When Sock’s world ranking points from Washington, Basel, Paris, and the Tour Finals start coming off the board over the next months, his world ranking drop is going to be astonishing. 145 players have had better seasons than Jack Sock. I mean, holy shit. He isn’t even hurt.
You wanna talk about Denis Shapovalov, don’t you.
Ah, you know me so well.I was 100% convinced that Grass Season Shapo would be the most powerful version of Shapo we’ve seen. I appear to be very wrong.A quarterfinal appearance in Eastbourne this week was cool, but back-to-back first round losses in Stuttgart and London were extremely not cool.Shapo is still a teen so take the following with a big grain of salt, but he appears to be a big match player. Best-of-five matches suit Shapo well, and I stand by my take that grass fits his game. Bet against the Precocious Boy, the Ebullient Lad, the Idiot Prince, the Young Don, Denis Shapovalov, at your own risk.Wait he drew Chardy in the first round? Crap. If he can get through Cheremy Jardy he gets...Andy Murray?Is there another British youngster named Andy Murray Jr.? Oh, that's the real Andy Murray, post-devastating hip surgery? Well, he's making a comeback. He looked good against Kyrgios but lost at Queen's, crushed Wawrinka, and got destroyed by Kyle Edmund last week. Not sure what to expect there.
So what’s the deal with Wimbledon? The Australian Open was young guys, Roger, and kinda Rafa. The French was a Rafa coronation. What’s the story of Wimbledon going to be?
The most likely outcome is that Wimbledon 2018 will be regarded as a big mess. Seeds will drop left and right and a rash of relative no-names will make it to the second week. After that, the storylines become really interesting.The Big Four aren’t looking so big right now. We could feasibly get our first first-time slam winner since Cilic in 2014. That would be a watershed moment and a real signifier that we’ve entered a new era.Or maybe Federer wins, and, maybe, that win is extra special.I don’t think Roger has any more than two slam wins left in him. He’s going to get a chance at Wimbledon this year and next year, and he’ll probably be amply fit for only one, maybe two, of the next three hard court slams. There’s a real chance that this tournament could be Federer’s 21st and final slam. That’s an awfully good reason to pay attention.For the WTA, it's clear that if Kvitova can come back from the stabbing and roll the field, that'll be one of the sports stories of the year. Serena's second third comeback of the season will always draw viewers. Last year's women's tournament featured a few instant classics, and we should get a few in this one as well. Right now, there's no dominant narrative, so just enjoy watching.
