The 2021 Forget the Protocol US Open Preview
The US Open is back, in all its humid and kitschy glory. This year will see the return of fans (despite no real letup in the pandemic due to the Delta variant...get vaccinated, folks) to the stadiums and
It’s fair to say that tennis has not had a good summer. The summer kicked off with a passable Wimbledon won by the No. 1 seeds, Novak Djokovic and Ashleigh Barty, but things rapidly went downhill from there. The Tokyo Olympics saw noted women-beater Alexander Zverev take gold, while the women’s side saw Naomi Osaka and Barty crash out early and yet another Random Number Generator event eventually won by Belinda Bencic. That’s not to say Belinda Bencic isn’t good (she is), but we are still lacking in a few consistent names at the top of women’s tennis for the time being. Serena Williams has also not played since pulling out of Wimbledon due to injury, and I’m not sure she’s going to be playing much more in her career, which is depressing.
On the men’s side, things have gotten even worse. Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer are out for the season with injuries. Defending champion Dominic Thiem has withdrawn as well. Djokovic himself hasn’t even played since Tokyo, skipping both North American Masters events. The apparent silver lining is that there has been significantly more airtime for the “Next Gen”, but even that hasn’t gone as planned. The breakout star of the Toronto event was Reilly Opelka, who despite being significantly more entertaining than John Isner, is still effectively an Isner clone. Montreal saw a miracle run from the extremely fun Camilla Giorgi, but it did little to dispel the notion that the WTA has zero consistency. Zverev won Cincinnati and then immediately was once again “revealed” to be a piece of shit in a Slate piece.
So where does leave us? Well, for starters, the favorites will likely be the Wimbledon champions, Novak Djokovic and Ashleigh Barty. Right now, the odds have Djokovic at -135 and Barty +350, with Daniil Medvedev (+400) and Naomi Osaka (+500) each sitting as their closest respective challengers.
We’ll tackle the men’s side of the draw because it is far more straightforward. While guys like Daniil Medvedev and Stefanos Tsitsipas still have the potential to lose early, it’s very clear that they are the best tennis players in the field not named Novak Djokovic. Zverev has been playing well enough in best-of-three to be in the discussion, but until he gets past his best-of-five woes, he’s not quite there. Medvedev and Tsitsipas will both avoid Djokovic until the final, at least, which seems fitting. If they survive the typical US Open gauntlet – Tsitsipas is playing Andy Murray in the first round, by the way – they will have a rematch of the Bullshit Russian fight in the semifinal. Zverev is in Djokovic’s half, which is certainly the matchup that Djokovic would’ve liked to avoid after Zverev’s comprehensive Olympics win. However, Zverev is very capable of losing to a Matteo Berrettini or Dennis Shapovalov type, so Djokovic won’t be sweating it too much.
It’s worth worrying about Djokovic slightly, especially after last year’s hilarious/egregious ballperson throat attack default. Djokovic has disappeared since his epic racquet toss in Tokyo, and it’s likely a smart move for him to take some time off and focus on the Slams for a bit. While Djokovic has clearly proven to be unstoppable this year and will definitely be motivated to complete the Calendar Year Grand Slam, this US Open likely won’t be a cakewalk. For one, the conditions are going to be tough (thanks, climate change), and Djokovic’s extreme heat record has been a weakness in this season and previous ones. However, he has the bonus of the No. 1 seed, so it’s almost impossible to see him crashing out to any of the early opponents.
The women’s draw is once again a complete lottery. On paper, there is clarity. Ashleigh Barty is coming off a Wimbledon title and a win at the Cincinnati Masters. But Barty’s best result in New York is a fourth-round appearance, and she has dangerous players like Jen Brady, Jessica Pegula, Iga Swiatek, and Belinda Bencic all looming as potential matchups.
Meanwhile, Naomi Osaka would likely be the public’s consensus choice to win after last year’s dominant run, but she has had a hellish summer of her own. I don’t really want to get into the off-court issues, but recent losses to Jil Teichmann and Marketa Vondrousova on hard courts have seriously dented her record as the best hard court player in the world. I think Osaka plays her best tennis in New York, but it remains to be seen whether she will be able to bring it after everything that’s happened.
The other contenders have reached legendary levels of inconsistency of late. Karolina Pliskova could make the final or lose in round 1. Same with Aryna Sabalenka (sigh). That leaves us with the typically long list of “women who are extremely good at tennis and can win a Slam because there is no super-elite player right now”. Barbora Krejickova already did that in Paris. Garbiñe Muguruza and Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova can catch fire. We’ve been waiting for Elina Svitolina to finally win one for years now. Simona Halep is returning after a long stretch injured, and we know how well she can play.
That being said, there is something of a youth movement occurring with those dark-horse candidates. Although veterans like Petra Kvitova, Angelique Kerber, and Victoria Azarenka are all capable of winning, it’s far more likely we see younger players like Maria Sakkari, Elena Rybakina, Karolina Muchova, or Paula Badosa make a deep run at this Slam. Plus there’s 17-year-old Coco Gauff, who appears to be headed directly toward the top 10 sooner or later.
All this will make the US Open fall into the familiar pattern that the tours have drifted to in the last 2-3 years. The women’s tour will have tons of drama and interesting matches, but may lead to a more out-of-the-box final result. The early men’s matches will be interesting for tennis nerds, but most of the public won’t tune in until the big-ticket men’s matches later in the second week. ESPN will focus on showing talking heads debating the latest press conference instead of showing real tennis. Nick Kyrgios will do some crazy stuff and then lose early. Whatever. I just feel lucky we’re having tennis with fans in the United States at this point (I will be attending this tournament in-person!), so I’ll leave my gripes at the entryway and pick up one of those water-cooling handheld US Open fans.
