Breaking down the Wimbledon women's draw

Jul 1

Jul 1 Breaking down the Wimbledon women's draw

The WTA is truly the bizarro version of the ATP. Where the men's game is dominated by two players who should be past their prime, the WTA has roughly a gagillion contenders who range in age from 20 (Indian Wells champion, Naomi Osaka) to 36 (the once and future GOAT, Serena Williams).Only four players who sit in the current top twenty of the WTA rankings would be a surprise winner, and one of those players has six Wimbledons in her trophy cabinet already.The variance week-to-week, slam-to-slam we see on the WTA is simply because the tour is loaded. Apples-to-apples comparisons between the the WTA and ATP back this up. The two players ranked sixth in the world are Caroline Garcia, who rules and is still just 24, and Grigor Dimitrov, who is a trash can. Sloane Stephens is the most boom-or-bust player in the world, but she has just as many slams as her fourth ranked counterpart on the men's tour, Juan Martin Del Potro, and she's only going to get better. Players at 10-20 in the world on the ATP include Diego Schwartzman (fun, but often trash), Pablo Carreno Busta (not a threat), Jack Sock (playing like an ITF level guy), Fabio Fognini (is Fabio Fognini) and Lucas Pouille (who is irrelevant). The WTA has players like ex-number one, Angie Kerber and future multi-slam winners in Daria Kasatkina and Osaka, plus very dangerous big hitters in Madison Keys, Jelenja Ostapenko, and Julie Goerges.The tour rocks.

Section 1Top seed: (1) Simona Halep

The outpouring of Halep support from current tour players after Halep won her first ever slam at Roland Garros was really cool, and it shows how much everyone was rooting for Halep to get that monkey off her back. Now that she's got her first slam, how many more can she claim?Her last four appearances at Wimbledon have been two quarterfinals, a first round exit, and a semifinal (side note: she lost to Genie Bouchard in that semifinal, which is a reminder of the time when Genie Bouchard was a decent tennis player). She's the best player in the world, and she's good on grass. That's a decent combination.Her quarter is tough, though, with hometown favorite, Johanna Konta, lurking in the bottom half. Halep should still get out without much problem.Best first round matchup: Alize Cornet vs Dominika CibulkovaUnseeded player most likely to win quarter: Sachia VickeryWinner: (1) Halep

Section 2Top seed: (8) Petra Kvitova

Petra Kvitova is not only having the second best year on tour this year, she's also a great story. The fact that she's playing at all is incredible.Standing in her way are a couple of monster hitters whose performances vary wildly from week-to-week. Ostapenko has a Roland Garros title and is just 21. She also defended that slam title by bouncing out in the first round.Maria Sharapova is here too. Sharapova has had a good year, making runs in every clay court event she's entered and having a decent showing at the Australian Open before she had to face Kerber in the third round. Kvitova is the sure thing in this quarter, but Ostapenko and Sharapova provide interesting, if not very similar, road blocks.Best first round matchup: (12) Ostapenko vs Dunne? Not easy to pick one here.Unseeded player most likely to win quarter: Sonya KeninWinner: (8) Kvitova

Section 3Top seed: (3) Gabrine Muguruza

It's well treaded earth at this point but Muguruza is a weird player. She's won multiple slams, including Wimbledon last year. She's also had the following losses since the start of 2018.7-6 (1), 6-4 vs Su-Wei Hsieh (ranked 88th), second round Melbourne3-6, 7-6 (11), 6-1 vs (Q) Sachia Vickery (ranked 100th), first round Indian Wells5-7, 6-2, 7-6 (6) vs Daria Gavrilova (ranked 24th), second round Rome6-2, 6-4 vs Barbora Strycova (ranked 24th), second round BirminghamSprinkle in the small handful of walkovers, withdrawals, and crunching losses (hello, 6-1, 6-4 vs Halep at Roland Garros) this year and you have a player who doesn't appear to be super trustworthy. She's also definitely one of your three favorites to win this tournament. It's a weird sport.Ashleigh Barty is the 17th seed in this quarter and not a bad pick for a breakout performance. Daria Kasatkina remains one of my favorite on tour and my pick of her to win this quarter should probably come with that warning label.Best first round matchup: (WC) Gabrielle Taylor vs (Q) Eugenie BouchardUnseeded player most likely to win quarter: Alison Van UytvanckWinner: (14) Kasatkina

Section 4Top seed: (6) Caroline Garcia

This quarter is very much my jam.Former world number one who could very well win the tournament? Hello, Angie Kerber.Exciting young gun who's super fun to watch? Welcome, Naomi Osaka.Person who's been airlifted from 1984? Always nice to have you, Carla Suarez Navarro.Top ten talent waiting for her slam breakthrough? Caroline Garcia, hi.Player with loads of talent but still working their way back from injury? There's Belinda Bencic.I could watch this quarter and ignore everything else until the quarterfinals and I'd be extremely satisfied.Best first round matchup: Bencic vs (6) GarciaUnseeded player most likely to win quarter: BencicWinner: (18) Osaka

Section 5Top seed: (7) Karolina Pliskova

Is Venus Williams through?Undoubtedly, we thought the answer to this question was a resounding "yes" before her remarkable 2017 season, but here we are asking the same question again.It's hard to parse Williams's season at this point. She went out to Bencic in straights at the Australian Open, made pretty good showings at Indian Wells and Miami, then had a pretty terrible clay court swing. Her half of the quarter is soft, and that's the good news. The top of the quarter isn't terribly strong, though Aryna Sabalenka is one of the stronger unseeded players in the draw. We should also make a quick note of Mihaela Buzarnescu's inexplicable late season renaissance.Best first round matchup: Sabalenka vs BuzarnescuUnseeded player most likely to win quarter: SabalenkaWinner: (7) Pliskova

Section 6Top seed: (4) Sloane Stephens

Sloane Stephens is such a weird player, it doesn't even make it fun to try and guess what she's going to do. She could win the whole thing or lose in the first round, and it wouldn't meaningfully change the way I view her as a player. There aren't more than three players on tour who can match Stephens when she's playing her best. She could also randomly lose to someone ranked 183rd in the world, something she did once this year.Julie Goerges, the best server on tour, is in the quarter as well, and I have a fondness towards Timea Babos because she wallops the ball and plays doubles. Who wins this quarter is entirely dependent on which Sloane Stephens shows up to the All England Club.Best first round matchup: Lesia Tsurenko vs BabosUnseeded player most likely to win quarter: BabosWinner: Babos, it'll almost certainly actually be Stephens or Goerges, but who cares

Section 7Top seed: (5) Elina Svitolina

Svitolina is the weakest top-ten seed in the draw, and with that, let's move on to what everyone else is talking about: 25th seeded Serena Williams.It is incredibly difficult to legislate how players returning from pregnancy should be seeded. Obviously, Serena Williams is far better than the 25th best player on tour (assuming she's anywhere near healthy), and penalizing her for having a child is, obviously, extremely unfair. Likewise, it would be unfair to Simona Halep if she had to play an unseeded Serena Williams in the first round of the tournament. Likewise, it sucks for Dominika Cibulkova who would have been the 32 seed if not for Williams's special exemption, something Cibulkova feels is unfair.For a gagillion reasons, I'm not super qualified to give a take about what should or should not happen. The WTA and the individual tournaments are going to have to deal with this issue going forward, and I do not envy them one bit.Serena's draw is a soft one (which undoubtedly cuts doubly harsh for now unseeded Cibulkova or now 26 seed, Daria Gavrilova, who has Kvitova in her half of her quarter). Whether she plays Svitolina or Kiki Mladenovic in the third round, she'll be a heavy favorite. She'll also be favorited against the 10 seed, Madison Keys, in the fourth round, someone Serena is yet to drop a set against in three matches. This is Serena's quarter unless that pectoral muscle that knocked her out of Roland Garros starts acting up again.Best first round matchup: Arantxa Rus vs (25) WilliamsUnseeded player most likely to win quarter: MladenovicWinner: (25) Williams

Section 8Top seed: (2) Caroline Wozniacki

This quarter sucks big time dude who cares.Best first round matchup: Camila Giorgi vs (21) Anastasija SevastovaUnseeded player most likely to win quarter: Aleksandra KrunicWinner: (2) Wozniacki

Quarterfinals

(8) Kvitova OVER (1) Halep(18) Osaka OVER (14) Kasatkina(7) Pliskova OVER Babos or Stephens or Goerges or whatever(2) Wozniacki OVER (25) Williams