2021 Forget the Protocol Wimbledon Preview
The last Wimbledon Championships took place on a different planet, both in terms of the sport and real-life circumstances. The last grass-court match of any consequence was Roger Federer’s five-set epic with Novak Djokovic, in which Federer blew two match points and Djokovic won in the first-ever 12-12 tiebreak.
Meanwhile, the last women’s final featured Serena Williams and Simona Halep, a match many thought would give Serena that elusive 24th Grand Slam title. Instead, Halep utterly dominated on return and took her second major title. And then, Halep suffered from a number of early upsets, got COVID, got injured, and hasn’t even come close to being No. 1 in the world.
Since these events, I have gotten two jobs and lived in three different homes (and had a two-month AirBnB nomad period). I can speak for most tennis fans that it felt very strange and wrong to not have Wimbledon last year while the US Open and French Open plowed on with. Thus, with the pandemic (somewhat) winding down in the West, it’s only natural that we’re back at Wimbledon watching a bunch of rich people perform incredible feats of tennis in front of other rich people.
Despite everything that has happened since 2019, somehow the two No. 1 seeds, Novak Djokovic and Ashleigh Barty, have remained the same (Kevin Anderson, the No. 4 seed, is a different story). Both players are also favored to win Wimbledon in 2021 by the oddsmakers, but there is a stark difference between the two situations.
On one hand, Novak Djokovic, sitting at -109, is clearly the best male tennis player in the world and is coming off impressive wins over Rafael Nadal and Stefanos Tsitsipas en route to the French Open title. With Nadal not playing Wimbledon and Federer looking...ancient, it’ll have to come down to the Next Gen to defeat Djokovic, something that very rarely happens.
Women’s Draw Stuff
Ashleigh Barty, currently priced at +550, has not won a Slam since the 2019 French Open and is largely in the No. 1 position because of the holdover rankings from 2019 that the WTA is still using. Barty skipped all of 2020, and her performances since then have been good, but not spectacular. She’s also dealing with multiple injuries and was forced to pull out of the French Open in the second round. Naomi Osaka has pulled out due to a myriad of factors, including mental health issues, leaving Barty as the de facto best player in the draw. While Barty is an excellent grass player and would be the odds-on favorite if healthy and in-form, it’s likely we’re headed for yet another wide-open tournament.
We’ll run through the contenders on the women’s side first. I’m not going to get into the debate of whether having an extremely open tournament is more entertaining than watching the same few people win every major title, but it’s undoubtedly true that the WTA doesn’t have as much separation between its elite players and “the field” outside of Naomi Osaka on hard courts. However, it does make their preview a lot more complex, so let’s knock it out.
Serena Williams is the “second-favorite” at +750, and it’s impossible to count her out despite a string of recent losses to lower-ranked players. The organizers gave her a solid draw, and while Serena is definitely on the decline, Wimbledon is probably the best remaining Slam for her to win No. 24. For one, she’s always been an incredibly grass-court player and has made the final or won in her previous four appearances at Wimbledon, a record that none of her younger competition can touch. Because of Wimbledon’s funky seeding, Serena will get a nice bump up to the No. 7 seed, and she will be a tough out no matter what.
Then there’s the next tier of Aryna Sabalenka, Petra Kvitova, Iga Swiatek, and Garbine Muguruza, all of whom could lose in the first three rounds or go on to win the whole thing. Sabalenka has the best tour results of the four by far, but her inconsistency makes her ridiculously frustrating. Kvitova is one of the best grass-court players ever herself, but she’s struggled with injuries and bad form of late.
Swiatek didn’t even make it out of the first round here in 2019, but she’s emerged as a very solid player on any surface. However, she’s played so little on grass that it’s hard to say whether she’s ready to make a deep run here – she lost in the French Open quarterfinals to Maria Sakkari and said she was pretty burned out. Lastly, Muguruza is basically a random number generator, so pick her at your own risk.
Of course, it’s more than likely that none of the women I’ve listed so far will win the title. After all, approximately zero people would’ve picked a 25-year-old Czech largely known as a doubles specialist to win the French Open, but Barbora Krejcikova won anyway. If you’re looking for some longshots, can I interest you in a bunch of really good Americans? There’s 17-year-old Coco Gauff, coming off a strong run in the French Open. Don’t forget about Jennifer Brady and Jessica Pegula, both criminally underrated players who can easily get hot. For the deep-cut WTA watchers out there, I would also throw Karolina Muchova and Marta Kostyuk in the discussion.
Men’s Draw Stuff
On the men’s draw, there is clarity, but that clarity certainly strays into “problematic” territory for a number of reasons. Two years and one pandemic later, Djokovic has somehow gotten even better, while Federer has battled injuries and is far, far from his best at age 39. Djokovic is a unique figure in modern sports. He is clearly the best in the world, but he’s also disliked for a variety of different reasons.
He’s kind of a prick.
Federer and Nadal have way bigger fanbases and Novak came later.
The Adria Tour, hitting the linesperson at the US Open, and some of the New Age health antics were trash.
Novak’s an extreme defensive baseliner in a world that loves aggressive play, and people think this is boring. (I think this is the worst reason of all for the dislike, by the way, Djokovic’s game is extremely entertaining for those who play tennis in real life and understand how difficult it is to pull off. When he’s in full flow and hitting the crap out of the ball, it’s aesthetically great.).
The Western Europe/US-focused tennis world is likely biased against Eastern Europeans.
From a Wimbledon perspective, Djokovic has won the last two titles and is definitely going to be favored in every single match he plays. His opposition has also been neutered before the tournament even starts next week. Nadal, as mentioned, is out. Dominic Thiem, the only other recent Slam winner in the field, suffered a wrist injury this week and is likely out. Djokovic’s biggest rivals on the odds sheet are Stefanos Tsitsipas (+500) and Daniil Medvedev (+600), both of whom would be clear underdogs in any best-of-five match. Medvedev and Tsitsipas also need to survive to even face Djokovic, which is no easy task.
Tsitsipas in particular has been awful at Wimbledon throughout his career, even though the surface should suit his game. Medvedev is a more accomplished grass-court player, but he’s cooled off since his Tour Finals win and run to the Australian Open final. There’s also Alexander Zverev and Matteo Berrettini, two big-hitting players who are coming off very strong clay court seasons. Zverev continues to live in the “elite but not elite enough” zone, while Berrettini is clearly very talented but has yet to claim any wins over Djokovic or Nadal in best-of-three, let alone best-of-five. Berrettini actually played really well against Djokovic at Roland Garros and is coming off an Eastbourne title, so if you’re looking for a value pick at +2200, that might be it. Andrey Rublev is also vaguely in the discussion, but he’s still figuring out best-of-five, so I wouldn’t count on it.
Then there’s Federer, who can’t really be counted out from a mental perspective, but also is essentially a non-factor. It seems that the English have given him the easiest possible draw (Pablo Carreno Busta grass disrespect activated), but his three wins at the French Open masked clear rust, poor ground game, and slower movement than what we saw in 2019. His loss to Felix Auger-Aliassime in Halle was downright depressing, with Federer just collapsing in the third set. If Federer is to make a deep run, he will need a perfect draw that avoids any of the aforementioned players (except maybe Zverev) and doesn’t tax him physically in the early rounds.
Right now, Federer’s return game is a mess, and he’s been forced to play way too many close sets and tiebreaks for a 39-year-old to make any type of noise. While Federer has proven that age is just a number in the past, he just hasn’t looked remotely in form this year. Though he would never do it, he might be better off saving his energy for the best-of-three matches at the Tokyo Olympics.
Everyone else is not going to win. Unlike the WTA, the ATP has built an elite tier of younger players below Djokovic and Nadal that are all odds-on favorites to make the Round of 16, at least. Denis Shapovalov is bad now. Jannik Sinner still needs a few years before he’s routinely competing for majors. Nick Kyrgios hasn’t played in months. Andy Murray is extremely fun to watch and also very washed. John Isner could make the semifinals by winning a dozen tiebreaks or lose in the first round to someone ranked outside the top 70.
Whatever happens, it’ll be refreshingly familiar to watch Wimbledon this year. As absurd sports spectacles go, Wimbledon is in the top percentile for absurdity and spectacle. I’m sure there will be many puff pieces about the pandemic and how it has filtered through our minds, but I’m honestly looking forward to forgetting the accouterments of global collapse and watching Aryna Sabalenka hit a backhand into my jugular. Enjoy the show!
