Welcome to ShapoSZN
Denis Shapovalov entered the 2017 Rogers Cup in the embryonic stage of development with just two career ATP level wins to his name. He was a star on the ITF circuit, an often dominant Challenger level player, and a Juniors Wimbledon title winner, but to most everyone outside of Canada, Shapovalov was little more than an afterthought wild card in the Montreal draw in 2017.He opened his campaign with a gritty comeback win over Rogerio Dutra Da Silva, a fringe top-100 player. His next match, a dominant straight setter over Juan Martin Del Potro opened eyes, but Del Potro was clearly far from healthy. He was fresh off straight set losses to Ernests Gulbis and a banged up Kei Nishikori in the weeks prior. Excuses could be made.Then Shapovalov played Rafael Nadal. The highlights of the match are basically tennis cocaine.Shapovalov in full flow is so fun to watch. He doesn’t run as much as he bounds, every movement seemingly encapsulating the exuberance he shows at every key moment. He’s powerful, but in a wiry, elastic way. He plays like someone who neither knows percentages nor how hard tennis can actually be. He involves the crowd, he emotes, and he just straight up wallops the snot out of the ball from both wings. It’s impossible to watch Shapovalov on form and not root for him.Against Nadal, Shapovalov went for every single line, chased down almost every single ball, and rode a rowdy hometown crowd to an incredible victory.He also shouldn’t have won.Dominance rating is a simple stat: the percentage of points you win returning serve divided by the percentage of points your opponent wins on your serve. It isn’t a clean mathematic concept, but if that number is bigger than 1.0, you’re a favorite to win. If that number gets much bigger than that, you’ve probably won and won easily.Rafa claimed a crisp 1.15 dominance rating against Shapovalov.Shapovalov surrendered 11 break points. One game in the third set on Shapovalov’s serve had ten deuces and three Nadal break points. Shapovalov went down in the deciding tiebreak. Normally, that’s a recipe for disaster. Shapovalov broke the spreadsheet and somehow won anyway. And he made himself a star.Thanks to a match he was lucky to win, Shapovalov has become El Shapo. He was one of the biggest stories of the US Open despite only making it to the fourth round. He earned a spot on the inaugural Laver Cup team and made the ATP Next Gen Finals. He became a full-fledged star. The results after the US Open didn’t match that hype.He had consecutive first round losses to the completely forgettable Victor Troicki and Ernesto Escobedo. He had disappointing early exits in Basel, Paris, Brisbane, Auckland, Melbourne, and Indian Wells. He could have won a title in Delray Beach but got crunched by Francis Tiafoe, another young gun but with far less game. The early hard court season for Denis Shapovalov, other than the funhouse mirror tournament that was Miami, was an immense disappointment.Shapovalov was not supposed to have a good clay season. By his own admission, he’s still figuring out how to handle the surface. Players who have a power game built around the serve, like Shapo, don't do well on clay. The surface is too slow, allowing a more defensive style to flourish. Even when Shapo truly learns clay, he will always be at a disadvantage. Shapo started this clay season by being beaten handily by Stefanos Tsitsipas in the first round in Monte Carlo and, more troublingly, by Nikoloz Basilashvili in Budapest. Then, out of nowhere, he ran to the semifinals of Madrid, his second career Masters semi, and made it to the round of 16 in Rome before having to play Nadal On Clay. Shapovalov found a level he hadn’t hit in nearly a year on his worst surface in two of the biggest tournaments he’s ever entered.For the first time since the US Open, the results are matching the hype.And now it’s grass season.Shapovalov has a grass court game. His powerful, sliding serve is going to be even more dominant on the slick courts. He’s not a graceful mover, but he’s a good one, covering court in every direction and darting around his backhand whenever he can. He’s unafraid to charge the net. His backhand may spray, but when it’s on, it’s a one-handed missile that can end a point from anywhere. It scans that he won Wimbledon as a junior.Many of Shapo’s “Next Gen” compatriots have already claimed titles. Karen Khachanov has one, Andrey Rublev has one, Francis Tiafoe has one, and Sascha Zverev has three Masters wins (Zverev, by the way, is light years ahead of where Federer was at this age). It’s time for Shapovalov to join them.He’s on the doorstep of the top 20, meaning he’ll have protected seeds in every tournament he plays, keeping him safe from tricky early round matchups.The top of the ATP is vulnerable. Stan Wawrinka might be done as a top player. Andy Murray might be just flat done. Novak Djokovic floated the idea of missing Wimbledon. Del Potro is far from the picture of health. Zverev has hamstring problems and is no better than "fine" on grass courts outside of his home country of Germany. Dominic Thiem on a non-clay surface is a joke, ditto for other players littering the top 20 (hello, Diego Schwartzman and Fabio Fognini).In the last month, Shapo played like a top player on a surface designed to defuse all of his weapons. For the first time as a full fledged member of the ATP Tour, he’s staring down the gun sights of a season on the surface that will maximize his talents. Denis Shapovalov is ready to become more than just a flashy young gun, and we’re just days away from the perfect platform to showcase his progression.Shapovalov is on a collision course with Roger Federer in the quarterfinals of Stuttgart this week.ShapoSZN draws nigh. Make sure you don’t miss it.
