An Idiot's Guide to the French Open

We're doing this again?Yes.Why? Isn't Rafa just going to roll through this tournament? Isn't the women's draw a total crapshoot?You're no fun. Dominic Thiem and Alexander Zverev exist. Novak Djokovic's ghost still haunts the Tour. And randomness can be fun, right?But honestly...Yeah, yeah I know. Rafa will probably win his 11th title. Maybe he'll drop a set this time! Look, Nadal lost to Dominic Thiem in Madrid and dropped sets to Fognini and Zverev in Rome. He's not invincible this year.*looks at the draw*Never mind.And it's clay. Why is clay good again?Look, don't sleep on the European clay season. The time between the Australian Open and Monte-Carlo got fairly boring (hello, Masters championJohn Isner). This clay season has been pretty exciting. Plus Nadal is one of the greatest athletes of all time. Watching Nadal eviscerate opponents is always fascinating. The Kvitova/Bertens final in Madrid was as good of a viewing experience as any.When there's bad clay court tennis, I agree that it's truly terrible, but as long as you're not watching someone like Sam Querrey or Johanna Konta, clay is really entertaining. Long rallies and point construction are interesting. Players who magically become unbeatable on clay like peak David Ferrer are interesting. You should try to watch as much as possible.Alright, well, what else should I know?MEN'S DRAWWOMEN'S DRAWYou got most of it for the men's side. But the women's draw is wide open so there's plenty to get excited about. Serena Williams is playing in her first Slam since having a child. There are six women in contention for the No. 1 ranking. Also, Federer is not playing, but you probably already knew that too. Juan Martín Del Potro injured his groin in Rome and is in questionable health. Injuries are bad.Wait, Rafa's already won Roland Garros ten times?Yeah.That's crazy.He's so damn good. Rafa may be one percent worse on clay than he was in 2008-2014, but it doesn't matter. It's just a pleasure to watch. Hopefully his health holds and somebody gives him a good match!Okay then, who is the best woman on clay? Based on 2017, you'd say it's Simona Halep, but she seems mentally incapable of winning a Slam (0-3 in finals) and has gotten bossed around on clay multiple times this spring. 2016 French Open Champion Garbiñe Muguruza is always dangerous, but she has not been sharp in 2018. Elina Svitolina crushed Halep in Rome and made the quarterfinals last year.https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dcm4KQf_EXwIsn't Svitolina kinda bad?Yeah...Svitolina's performances in Slams also leave much to be desired. Her disastrous collapse against Halep in Paris last year will be fresh in everyone's minds.That leaves us with Darya Kasatkina, Maria Sharapova, and maybe Jelena Ostapenko. None of them are consistent enough to be crowned "best woman on clay." I think we might know the answer to this question after Roland Garros, but certainly not before. Sharapova has been playing quite well of late. Ostapenko and Kasatkina have had varying success.Then there's No. 18 Kiki Bertens, a semifinalist in 2016 and a fantastic clay player (won Charleston, final in Madrid). She could be the most dangerous player in the top half of the draw. Her non-clay results preclude us from counting on her, but she's honestly beaten just about everybody on this surface in the last three years.There are no favorites in the women's tournament. You can't count out Petra Kvitova, who strung together ten consecutive wins on clay even if it's not her best surface. You can't count out Karolina Pliskova either, as she dominated Halep in Madrid and can get hot at any time. Heck, even Caroline Garcia and Elise Mertens have the talent to win this tournament.I can't believe you're wasting page space on EliseMertens winning the French Open.Fair.I do think we will a new Slam winner at this tournament. I also think Australian Open champion Caroline Wozniacki will not make the second week.It's been 800 words and you haven't talked about Denis Shapovalov yet. What gives?HELL YEAH IT'S SHAPOREDCLAYSZN AT FTP!https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1uqPfXR_hv0Look, he's worth talking about! We thought Denis was going to be a total disaster on clay, but the Young Don continues to prove us wrong. Shapo made a Masters 1000 semifinal in Madrid and won a couple matches in Rome before getting pasted by Nadal. Shapovalov, now at a new career high, has Nadal in his section of the draw, but he still has a good shot of making another Round of 16 appearance in a Slam. Shapo gets a very interesting matchup against Australian John Millman in the first round, but after that he might not face a seeded player because Jack Sock is actually bad.Seriously, what's up with that guy?He can't beat anyone. If you're looking for an American to root for, Frances Tiafoe is your man.And what about the rest of the "Next Gen?" Are they ever going to retire that phrase?Not while Roger Federer is alive.As for the other rising stars, there's not much there. 2018 Australian Open semifinalist Hyeon Chung withdrew with an ankle injury, crushing the hopes and dreams of everyone at Forget the Protocol. Andrey Rublev is out too. Alex De Minaur got a wild card and faces another younger player in British No. 1 Kyle Edmund. Edmund has the talent himself to make a deep run, as long as he keeps his head intact. Borna Coric is playing, and will be his boring but very good self.Stefanos Tsitsipas obliterated Thiem in Barcelona and they will probably get a rematch in the second round. It would've been nice if Tsitsipas, who made a final in Barcelona, could have gotten an easier draw, but we'll take a one-handed backhand festival early in the tournament.What about Zverev? Isn't he Next Gen? What's his deal?Ah, Alexander Zverev. This should be the tournament where Zverev finally makes the second week of a Grand Slam. His section is by far the weakest of any of the top seeds and he has been lights out on clay this season. If he doesn't get to at least the quaterfinals here, he needs to seriously start running marathons or something to work on his conditioning.Zverev's run on clay in 2018 was about as impressive as Nadal's. Winning two straight titles and making the Rome final is no joke. If there wasn't a rainstorm during the match against Nadal, Zverev could've closed it out for an unprecedented non-Nadal back-to-back Masters on clay. Statistically, Zverev is one of the four best players on tour right now. He should make a big run. Some might say he must make a run. There's a non-zero chance this could be the start of the "Zverev Era" of professional tennis. We could also see another flameout as he can't push his way around Dusan Lajovic. It's up in the air.Serena back?I have no idea. Serena Williams has not played a match on clay since losing to Muguruza in the 2016 French Open final. Her Roland Garros wins in 2013 and 2015 speak for themselves, but she has looked inconsistent in the five matches she has played in her comeback. To everyone wondering why Serena isn't seeded, that's just the way tennis rankings have worked since the beginning of time. Is it less entertaining? Yeah, I bet the Roland Garros organizers would love to put Serena Williams as the No. 4 seed, but that's just not fair to everyone else who has played in the last year.Serena has a relatively doable draw though, with Kristyna Pliskova (the not as good Pliskova) in Round 1 and probably No. 17 seed Ashleigh Barty in Round 2. The other seeds in her quarter are Julia Goerges, who is actually bad on clay, Karolina Pliskova and...Maria Sharapova. A Sharapova/Serena matchup in the fourth round would be crazy fun, and I'm rooting for it to happen. Will Serena win? Well, it's not impossible, but I think she'll be too rusty to make it through seven matches.Give me some dark horses or interesting plotlines.DIEGO!SCHWARTZMAN!This is my favorite point of 2017:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-SBQcFItnS8The good 5-foot-7 Jewish boy is the No. 11 seed in a Grand Slam. Wild. I am under the very dumb impression that Diego is good enough to beat anyone on clay, even Rafael Nadal. He isn't. He could also get hit off the court by Benoit Paire, as he did last week. Diego won a 500 on clay earlier this year and he has a good enough draw to make the quarters against Nadal, where he will inevitably lose despite breaking Nadal three times.Speaking of short men who can smack the shit out of the ball, you can't forget about David Goffin. Goffin suffered a freak accident at last year's French Open when he slipped on a rain tarp. Goffin has the game and the favorable draw necessary to make a deep run at Roland Garros.There's the No. 17-24 seeds, all of whom are underseeded and all could lose before the first weekend. Novak Djokovic is sort of back. He's finally showing us some signs of life and has a nice section. Tomas Berdych, Kei Nishikori, Nick Kyrgios, and Stan Wawrinka are also lurking in that region. Wawrinka looked utterly awful in his favorite tournament in Geneva this week (bageled in the second set by Marton Fucsovics) so we shouldn't expect much from him. They are all total wild cards due to health.And then there's Fabio Fognini. Who isn't talking themselves into Fabio Fognini getting into the quaterfinals this year? The main problem is that it's also Fabio Fognini, who excels in throwing away matches (and his equipment).https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OU2bX7nfEJEHowever, Fognini does have a beautiful draw for a No. 18 seed. He gets the intriguing but not-as-good Pablo Andjuar in Round 1, the winner of a Sela/qualifier match in Round 2, and then who knows with how inconsistent Edmund can be. With a very beatable Cilic (recent defeats to...Malek Jaziri!) as the highest seed in his section, it's all coming up Fabio. The earliest he could get Nadal is the semis.That being said, with all this hype he'll probably get bageled in the fourth by Andjuar, who is a pretty dangerous clay courter himself.For the women, the dark horses are less compelling. Clay specialist Laura Siegemund has a very winnable first match against Vandeweghe. 2015 finalist Lucie Safarova could very well upset Pliskova, but she has struggled with illness since Dubai. The return of Victoria Azarenka, finally allowed to leave the United States, is also someone to watch out for.How am I going to watch all of this?If you're in America and you don't have Tennis Channel, you're not! You may get some extremely mediocre and sometimes tape-delayed coverage from NBC, but you're basically on your own until the semifinals.If you're in Europe, Eurosport 1 and 2 are your best bet. UK viewers are stuck with ITV.Otherwise, I'm sure you can find some illegal streams somewhere.Alright, I want to see some picks.Fair.MEN'S QUATERFINALISTS: Nadal, Anderson, Cilic, Ramos, Goffin, Djokovic, Thiem, Zverev(I hate that I have Ramos-Vinolas in the quarters, but that section is just so bad.)Nadal vs. Cilic, Goffin vs. ZverevNadal wins.WOMEN'S QUARTERFINALISTS: Halep, Garcia, Muguruza, Pliskova, Ostapenko, Svitolina, Kvitova, Kasatkina(very chalky and absolutely wrong, would like to get 4/8 right here)Halep vs. Muguruza, Svitolina vs. KvitovaSvitolina wins.