An Idiot’s Guide to the 2020 US Open
The last tennis major was in January 2020, which happened approximately 19 years ago. Back in Melbourne, there were familiar storylines. Novak Djokovic was untouchable. Seeds dropped early and often in the women’s bracket. Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal still delivered moments of brilliance but were clearly getting older. Another young American woman, this time Sofia Kenin, announced her arrival as a force to be reckoned with. We even got treated to the standard Australian Open weirdness: an engaged Nick Kyrgios, a Garbiñe Muguruza run from out of nowhere, and even a Tennys Sandgren quarterfinal.
Flash forward to August of 2020 and, well, you know. There was a global pandemic, the tour shut down, and things just got worse from there, especially in the United States. AND YET somehow we have a Grand Slam kicking off in a country that has been devastated by a poor virus response for the last six months.
The tennis world hasn’t been much better after spending its COVID-induced hiatus stumbling unevenly while trying to create some ad hoc events. Some exhibitions went off relatively smoothly, like the Andy Murray-led Battle of the Brits romp in England. Others became COVID hotspots and international incidents. Great work on the Adria Tour, Novak.
For better or for worse, tennis is well and truly back now, with the women having played events in Lexington, Prague, and Palermo. The men returned to ATP action at the Western & Southern Open, traditionally in Cincinnati but relocated to New York due to, you guessed it, these unprecedented times.
Grand Slam tennis will return at the US Open at an event that will be defined so little by what happens on the court and so much by what happens everywhere else.
Who’s not here?
BG: Lots of folks! The men will be missing three top ten players in Federer, Nadal, and Gael Monfils. Quarterfinal threats like Fabio Fognini, Stan Wawrinka, and Kyrgios are also out. Former finalist Kei Nishikori tested positive for COVID-19 twice, so he’s out. Dangerous players like Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, Lucas Pouille, and Alexei Popyrin all didn’t make the trip.
The women are far more affected by withdrawals. Ashleigh Barty and Simona Halep, ranked 1 and 2 in the world, are out. Elina Svitolina, Bianca Andreescu (the defending champion), Kiki Bertens, and Belinda Bencic, ranked 5-8 respectively, are out. Fan favorites Svetlana Kuznetsova and Hsieh Su-Wei aren’t coming to New York. Young gun Anastasia Potapova will be taking the week off. All in all, more than 25 players, most of whom are recognizable to semi-serious fans of the sport, have decided not to play.
When the NBA restarted its season and began its playoffs, there was a debate to be had amongst the talking heads about whether the championship deserves an asterisk. When you point out that home field advantage is taken away from the best teams in the league, an insertion of asterisk becomes dumb.
Let’s be quite clear about the US Open though: there should be some kind of an asterisk or at least a footnote on this one. While it will require two weeks of top-level tennis to come through as champion, so many of the world’s best players deciding to stay far away make it feel incomplete.
What are the storylines I should know about?
TJ: Well, Serena Williams will once again be aiming for major No. 24. After coming very close in 2018 and 2019, this is the best chance Serena’s had in a while to tie Margaret Court’s record. It would also be fitting to tie that record against a pared-down field considering Court set hers by beating lower-ranked players in the days before anyone cared about the Australian Open. Williams did lose two of her matches in warmup tournaments to Shelby Rogers and Maria Sakkari, but they were close-run affairs. Remember, Serena has made two of the last three Slam finals—in a very inconsistent WTA, she’s still the safest bet.
With almost the entire top ten out, Serena probably deserves co-favorite status along with Naomi Osaka. Back in February, Osaka was barely among the top-five US Open favorites, well back of Serena and 2019 champion Andreescu, while also trailing Ashleigh Barty and Simona Halep. With the latter three all absent from the 2020 field and Osaka looking in top form in Cincinnati, the 2018 champ is now slightly favored with average odds to win at +563.
From a tennis perspective, Osaka is playing quite well, having won a few tough matches in Cincy/NY. She’s also become a leader in the fight against police brutality and systemic racism, leading a protest by sitting out a match in Cincy/NY before agreeing to play after a discussion with the USTA. Osaka’s example could become another storyline as the American sports world has engaged in several wildcat strikes to protest police brutality in the last few days.
However, assuming everything stays as it currently is (famous last words in 2020), players like Karolina Pliskova and Petra Kvitova are a step back, with maybe Aryna Sabalenka and Sonia Kenin just behind. Both Sabalenka and Kenin clearly have slam-quality game but have been less than impressive since coming back.
The women’s draw is completely scrambled by withdrawals. Pliskova, the current world No. 3, has the No. 1 seed and a very straightforward path to the semifinals. As does Serena Williams, who moved up from No. 8 to be the No. 3 seed. It will be interesting to see if outsiders like Madison Keys, Johanna Konta, and Elena Rybakina can challenge the status quo now that the field has been thinned. The potential for deep runs from new faces is higher than ever. 16-year-old Coco Gauff could take advantage, especially with an Australian Open rematch with Osaka in the cards if she can get through the early rounds.
BG: It’s hard to imagine any result other than Novak Djokovic romping through the men’s draw, as long his neck is healthy. His only real challenges until the semis are a potential match against John Isner in the fourth round (10-2 H2H in favor of Djokovic) and a quarterfinal with Goffin or Shapovalov. Thus, the big storylines probably have more to do with people who are losing or have lost their way.
Sascha Zverev is lost in the realm between realms these days. He has completely and utterly forgotten how to serve and is frighteningly lost in his own head. Can he find some kind of form in the bubble? Andy Murray hasn’t just lost a step, he’s lost three or four. Can his surgically repaired hip survive, let alone thrive, in a best-of-five format? Grigor Dimitrov has been open about how contracting Covid-19 has affected his fitness. Does he have enough to last through the two weeks?
I’d normally spend some time talking about the exciting young guys on tour, like Canadians Denis Shapovalov (who has a great draw) and Felix Auger-Aliassime, or about how Andrey Rublev looked every inch a top-ten player before the tour shut down. But with no sample size to work with, making grand hypotheses about breakthrough players is an exercise in futility. Sebastian Korda could be cool though; he gets a first-round match against Shapovalov which should be interesting.
TJ: The two biggest threats to Djokovic will be Dominic Thiem, Daniil Medvedev, and Stefanos Tsitsipas, all of whom have proven themselves to be capable of challenging the Big Three. However, the problem is getting to a matchup with Djokovic. Both Medvedev and Tsitsipas could lose early if they have a bad matchup. And Dominic Thiem on hard courts could lose to practically anyone, as seen by his crushing defeat to Filip Krajinovic in Cincy/NY. Thiem has a tough path with Marin Cilic, Andy Murray, and Felix Auger-Aliassime in his quarter. Medvedev and Tsitsipas should be relatively insulated with better draws, but eventually, they will be tested.
BG: The real test for all the players will be form. Jim Courier pointed out rightly on a broadcast that six months is probably the longest break from competitive tennis everyone on tour has had since starting to play tournament matches. Players will need to find their top gear after months of solo hitting sessions or low-pressure exhibitions and without a crowd’s energy to lean on. From a television perspective, the atmosphere at the Cincy/NY event has been completely dry. For a “country club sport”, tennis has always had energetic crowds, but the individualism of the sport has now become a hindrance. It’s almost eerie to watch as fans, families, and even line judges have all been stripped away.
It’s all going to be a brutal challenge. The winners will probably not be the players with the most game. They will be the players who come closest to playing at their full potential.
Best Bets:
Djokovic to win (-113)
Getting minus odds on picking a slam winner is usually reserved for peak Nadal on clay, but there isn’t anyone who will threaten Djokovic. You could half talk me into Stefanos Tsitsipas at +850, but if you’re taking that action, you’re basically betting on Djokovic getting sick or getting hurt. Not worth it.
Petra Kvitova to win (+1400)
If there’s anyone who can take advantage of the unique court speed in New York, it’s Petra Kvitova. Everyone’s reporting the courts are glassier than normal, and sliced serves out wide are proving near impossible to deal with. No one has a stronger slider than the lefty Kvitova, who could use first-strike tennis to charge to the final.
Karolina Pliskova to win (+1000)
Similar to Kvitova, Pliskova should see an advantage with the quicker surface. She’s made the final in New York before and has a rather straightforward draw due to being the No. 1 overall seed. There’s definitely value here.
Sloane Stephens to lose in the first 3 rounds (no idea)
The 2017 US Open champion has been in awful form and she draws Serena Williams in Round 3 even if she can escape Mihaela Buzarnescu. It’s not looking good.
Madison Brengle over Lesia Tsurenko (+135)
In the “ridiculous Round 1 match that only tennis nerds care about” betting section, Lesia Tsurenko probably shouldn’t be favored here. She retired from her last match due to injury and hadn’t been playing great before then anyway.
