An Idiot's Guide to the 2020 Australian Open
The tennis season is back, folks. As is tradition, the season begins with its premier event in the Asia-Pacific region: the Australian Open. With 2020 set to be one of the busiest tennis years ever, Ben and Tristan have the FTP Idiot’s Guide to the 2020 Australian Open to get you started.
Wasn’t Australia Just on Fire?
Tristan Jung: Yes, it was. It was an environmental catastrophe, and it’s impossible to discuss anything occurring in Australia, without it. This is especially true because it’s going to affect play: earlier this week, one player (Dalila Jakupovic) was forced to retire from a match due to awful air conditions. The organizers allowed qualis to continue outdoors despite the horrendous air conditions. It was not good. There’s a reasonable case to be made that all of the Australian hard court season, from the ATP Cup through the 250 in Adelaide, should have been canceled or at least postponed by a few days. But capitalism.
After all the climate denialism, gaslighting, and reckless support for the fossil fuel industry by successive Australian governments and power structures, few could argue that this PR nightmare is deserved. Please be aware that despite what the numbskulls in the Australian media tell you, all of this is climate change-related. If you have any doubts about the environment, just remember that you could lose your favorite sporting events too!
So, now what?
Tristan: Now we watch tennis, I suppose. Despite the literal pall being cast over the sport, it’s time to break down the main storylines of the actual tennis. For the sake of Australia, we start on the women’s side, where year-end No. 1 and first overall seed Ashleigh Barty will be the biggest domestic headline of the tournament. Barty has already done so much for women’s tennis in Australia, and winning the Australian Open would mean a tremendous amount for the country and her Indigenous Australian roots. There’s nothing quite like uniting a country devastated by disaster, but the pressure will be immense. Every Barty match will likely take center stage at Rod Laver Arena, and the intense Australian crowd will be more motivated than ever.
Her path to victory is straightforward. She has a very kind quarter as the No. 1 seed, with her biggest challenge being inconsistent 13-seed Petra Martic. That quarterfinal could be against Petra Kvitova or Madison Keys, but both of them must overcome significant challenges to get there. In the semis, a matchup against Serena Williams or Naomi Osaka—the other clear WTA headliners—could be in the cards.
(I hate to relegate her to parentheses status, but can Serena finally break her unprecedented losing streak in Grand Slam Finals? She’s the best player in the world right now at peak value, especially after her resounding win in Auckland to start the season. It’s a question of whether she can maintain that level through to the very last point.)
Whatever the case, Barty is set up for a deep run in this tournament, which will grow anticipation and excitement as the days go on.
On the men’s side, the storylines are exactly the same as the last two years. Despite falling short at the ATP Tour Finals, Rafael Nadal, Novak Djokovic, and Roger Federer are still at the top of the sport. This never gets old, right? We’re going to watch these guys until they’re in wheelchairs. Right now, Djokovic is the clear favorite. This is his best Slam, and he rolled through the ATP Cup in top form. Meanwhile, Nadal had some bumps along the road, most prominently a straight-sets loss to Djokovic in the ATP Cup Final. He also lost to David Goffin and scraped by matches with Alex De Minaur and Yoshihito Nishioka. It’s enough to suggest that Nadal isn’t at Djokovic’s level right now.
As for Federer, no one knows what to expect from the 38-year-old. Federer appears to have spent the offseason getting roasted by Greta Thunberg for his Credit Suisse/fossil-fuel ties and playing zero Tour-level tennis. Depending on how this season goes, I think this could be Roger’s last ride. A retirement in Basel 2020 would be the way to go, especially if his play drops off significantly. Quite like Tom Brady, it’s clear that Roger’s talent level is definitively lower than it used to be. A win at the Australian Open would be an insane achievement. By betting odds, he has dropped behind Daniil Medvedev to fourth-favorite, surely the first time that’s happened on a non-clay event in years.
Is Anyone Else Playing That I Should Care About?
Ben Goren: Hell yeah.
The Babies
By now, you know who Coco Gauff is. For tennis beatniks/weirdos, Gauff has been a name worth watching for...three or four years already? One of the most tantalizing prospects we’ve seen in decades, Gauff has somehow not only met expectations for her start on tour, but smashed them thoroughly. I’m on record as saying she’ll be top 30 within the next few months. A first-round matchup against Venus Williams (how much do we love rigging the draws, folks?) is yet another changing of the guard moment.
Amanda Anisimova is the other baby American to look at. She’s already seeded at age 18 and change and has a fairly cushy draw.
The Ones Who Should Make It Happen Now
Elina Svitolina has a laundry list of big titles at this point. She’s an out-and-out defender who covers the hell out of the court and hits it just well enough to transition from defense to attack when the mood strikes her. At 25, there’s lots of great tennis in her future, but with the insane crop of younger (and brighter) talent below her, now is as good a time as any for Svitolina to make her first slam.
I’ve made a promise not to pick Nick Kyrgios to win the Australian Open. So I won’t, but here’s my premise instead: he’s never going to get a slam that feels more like a team event than this Australian Open. You could see during the ATP Cup how much the wildfires are weighing on him, and he in turn played the best week of his life. Rafael Nadal is close enough to him in the draw to get him motivated to deliver in the early rounds. As with any Nick Kyrgios thought experiment, what actually ends up happening is a random number generator. But I believe that, if it is ever going to happen (and it probably never will), now is when it has to.
The Dry Guys
Denis Shapovalov has looked awesome in the opening weeks of the season. He’s already proven to be a big match player. Can he get passed a rejuvenated (and, after his gritty 2019 reboot, newly minted Wet Guy) Grigor Dimitrov before taking on the world’s preeminent Dry Guy, Roger Federer, in the 4th Round?
Naomi Osaka won here last year. It feels like she’s not being treated as an out-and-out favorite this year. That could be very dumb if she reaches anywhere near her top form.
Simona Halep is, I think, not healthy. But she’s still a force to be reckoned with and will make her opponent earn every inch on the tennis court, no matter how jacked up her back is. (Tristan: I’m more optimistic…for no reason.)
The Wet Guys
Daniil Medvedev is the universal fourth favorite for the men. I, like Halep, think he’s not physically ready to win a fortnight of slam tennis. Hopefully he gives us some more meme magic before he departs. His Russian counterpart, Andrey Rublev, is probably the one on the better run of form.
Aryna Sabalenka is...back? Has she developed a changeup to her primary tactic of beat the ever-living shit out of the tennis ball at every opportunity? Uh...no. Is she covering the court that much better? Uh...no. But does anyone hit the ever-living shit out of the tennis ball more or better than she does? Maybe not. A weak quarter with only Belinda Bencic in her way helps her.
Stefanos Tsitsipas is losing ground to his fellow NextGen guys. His “unraveling” at the ATP Cup and various exhibitions is overblown and lame. But his performances? Those have been, on balance, pretty lame too. Winning the Tour Finals was great. Losing to Shapovalov and Kyrgios? Not great.
Dominic Thiem had an awesome year last year. The only thing left for him to finish on his resume (other than getting Rafael Nadal to retire) is put it together at a non-clay court slam.
AUSTRALIAN OPEN PICKS:
Ben
Quarterfinals:
Nadal v Fritz
Medvedev v Rublev
Coric v Federer
Tsitsipas v Djokovic
Barty v Keys
Osaka v S Williams
Sabalenka v Muchova
Svitolina v Pliskova
Semifinals:
Nadal v Rublev
Federer v Djokovic
Keys v Osaka
Sabalenka v Svitolina
Finals:
Nadal v Djokovic
Osaka v Svitolina
Champions:
Nadal
Osaka
Tristan:
Quarterfinals:
Nadal v Thiem
Medvedev v Goffin
Berrettini v Federer
Bautista Agut v Djokovic
Barty v Keys
Osaka v S Williams
Bencic v Halep
Svitolina v Pliskova
Semifinals:
Thiem v Medvedev
Federer v Djokovic
Keys v Osaka
Halep v Svitolina
Finals:
Medvedev v Djokovic
S Williams v Svitolina
Champions:
Djokovic
S Williams
