An Idiot's Guide to the 2020 French Open
TJ: Many of you are likely unaware that the French Open starts on Monday, September 28. This is by design. During the initial height of the pandemic, the French Open organizers brazenly decided to take up valuable real estate on the tennis calendar and place their tournament right after the US Open, displacing three other events. Coming after Wimbledon just canceled their event, the move was widely panned as selfish and stupid. For the most part, it was.
Yet since the world simply cannot exist without profit, we are now playing the French Open two weeks after the US Open, giving many players a solid 12 days to warm up on clay. Oh, and COVID-19 cases in France are rising again, but they’ve decided to let fans into Roland Garros for the event at half capacity. I’m sure the players are thrilled.
At least some of the familiar names are back. Rafael Nadal will be fully rested after sitting out the US Open and will be the odds-on favorite. The women’s draw will see the return of Simona Halep, Elina Svitolina, and Kiki Bertens, although world No. 1 Ashleigh Barty has opted not to defend her title from last year. Gael Monfils, Fabio Fognini, and Stan Wawrinka are all playing after missing out on the US Open. However, last year’s champion Ashleigh Barry is out, as are Bianca Andreescu, and Naomi Osaka. Roger Federer also remains sidelined for the rest of the year.
BG: I think part of growing from casual tennis fan to tennis sicko is appreciating the clay court season. It has a bad reputation as a surface that rewards ball whackers who don’t play with much creativity or skill but can chase balls down and bunt those baseline lobs that 12 year olds love to hit for a few hours. At times, it looks like a completely different sport than indoor or grass.
And while that is undeniably partially true, I think the clay season brings a degree of altruism to the game.
The oldest of tennis fans will say that tennis at its purest form is the serve and volley, mostly because that’s how Rod Laver played 800 years ago. I’d say at its purest form, it’s a test of who is the best ball striker.
On hard court, carpet, and grass court, you can win on first strike, cheap tennis. Clay and its sticky mud makes that an impossibility. So yes, it rewards those tiny speedsters like Michael Chang with no weapons to speak of. But it also requires precise ground strokes with topspin to open the court. It requires the guile of a well timed drop shot. We’re even going to see drop serve aces at Roland Garros.
It’s a different bag of tricks that makes you a great clay court player, and it’s a bag of tricks I’ve developed great affinity for.
Men’s Draw
TJ: As usual, this tournament is going to be about Rafael Nadal vs. the field. Despite sitting out the U.S Open, Nadal retains his spot as the favorite at Roland-Garros, with odds to win the tournament averaging at -143. This is no surprise for a guy who's never lost a final at the French Open and only failed to qualify for the final 3 times in the last 15 tournaments.
Frankly, it’s hard to bet against the man with 12 French Open titles, even if Nadal was beaten comprehensively on clay by Diego Schwartzman in the Rome Masters warmup. Nadal’s dominance on clay is unlike anything we’ve ever seen in sports. To beat him is just a monumental task. There are seemingly only two other legitimate competitors: Novak Djokovic and Dominic Thiem. The more likely option is Djokovic, fresh off his disqualification for hitting a line judge in the throat with a tennis ball. He won the Rome Masters event and has beaten Nadal at Roland Garros before, but his overall record at Roland Garros has been mixed.
Dominic Thiem established himself as the No. 2 clay player in the world behind Nadal after defeating Novak Djokovic in the 2019 French Open semifinal to make his second final in a row. However, he’s just come off a grueling two weeks of tennis to win survive the US Open…
…so we have no idea how ready he will be for the French.
Despite winning his first Grand Slam on hard courts, Thiem is a monster on clay. However, he’s never beaten Nadal in best-of-five, and we haven’t seen him play any of the warmup events.
Next Gen contenders like Stefanos Tsitsipas, Alexander Zverev, and Daniil Medvedev have all had some success on clay, but defeating any of the top three seeds on the surface seems like a stretch. Zverev made the US Open final with a relatively easy draw, and his overall level seems not good enough to repeat the feat in Paris. Tsitsipas has beaten Nadal in best-of-three on clay, but his Grand Slam record has been awful since he made the Australian Open semifinals in 2019. Medvedev is not really a clay court player and this is his weakest Slam by far.
Of the rest, there’s not much to report. Guys like Diego Schwartzman, Matteo Berrettini, Andrey Rublev, Denis Shapovalov, Felix Auger-Aliassime, Fabio Fognini, and Gael Monfils could all score a big upset, but they’re not winning the whole thing. Former champion Stan Wawrinka has the clay-court pedigree, but he’s not the player he once was. In an interesting twice, he faces Andy Murray in a very not rigged first-round matchup. Pablo Carreno Busta is...Pablo Carreno Busta. Is anyone else remotely relevant? Uh, 21-year-old Norweigan Casper Ruud has been playing well of late, as have FTP favorite Ugo Humbert and longtime German Challenger grinder Dominik Koepfer. That’s about all the names you need to know unless you’re an insane fan of Andreas Seppi or Albert Ramos Vinolas.
Women’s Draw
TJ: Good luck picking a winner from this group. 2018 French Open champion Simona Halep is the prohibitive favorite after winning both the Prague Open and the Italian Open in the leadup to the tournament. She does have No. 3 seed Elina Svitolina, No. 5 seed Kiki Bertens, and No. 6 seed Serena Williams in her side of the draw, but given the unpredictability of the WTA, there’s no guarantee they make it very far.
Serena is an interesting case after coming off a semifinal loss to Victoria Azarenka in the US Open. She remains in search of that elusive 24th major title, but her recent Grand Slam performances have not been very convincing. She lost to Sofia Kenin in the third round in 2019, and she hasn’t made a clay court final at any level since her 2016 loss to Gabi Muguruza in the French Open final. While Serena can’t be counted out, it’s hard to put her in the top three favorites.
Muguruza is another interesting name herself. Clay is probably her best surface, and she took Halep to a tight third set in the Rome semifinals. However, her inconsistent results leave her no better as a second or third favorite. She has a fairly easy draw in the bottom half. Rounding out the potential favorites section is Elina Svitolina, who didn’t play in the US Open and is still searching for a Grand Slam title. Her game is also suited to clay, but she’s had a number of disappointing Grand Slam results and is still searching for her first Slam final.
There’s also Karolina Pliskova and Petra Kvitova, two Czech women who don’t have clay-suited games but have had good results on the surface in the past. Pliskova recently made the Italian open final before retiring due to injury, but neither of them has shown the consistency to make a deep run. Sofia Kenin, Madison Keys, and a resurgent Victoria Azarenka are all dark horses.
Viewing Options
Unlike the other three Grand Slams, the French Open’s American broadcast is run by Tennis Channel and NBC, which is a disaster for most fans. Good luck finding the all-court coverage that Eurosport offers for the event without paying serious money. Europeans who have the premium Eurosport package, on the other hand, will get the best coverage of any major.
Best Bets:
Elina Svitolina (+1700) and Petra Kvitova (+2400) to win: BG – Tennis lines, to my eye, have been a bit soft as we’ve moved from hard court to clay, and getting Svitolina and Kvitova and these numbers is evidence of that. Halep is a deserving favorite, but Petra is getting juice like she’s a 10-15 seed when she’s the third best clay court player in the world according to ELO.
Aliona Bolsova Zadoinov (-120) over Jasmine Paolini: TJ – Give me the three-named Spanish players on clay any day!
