May 24

May 24 An Idiot's Guide to the 2019 French Open

Rafael Nadal will win the French Open. That is not as much a prediction as it is an observable fact. Rafa on clay is an inevitability, with all the trappings that often befall such a state. It is not now. It is not even all that interesting, but it is what will happen, and you better get used to it.

Here is Rafael Nadal's all-time record at the French Open: 86-2

Here is Rafael Nadal's all-time record at the Davis Cup in matches played on clay: 18-0

Rafael Nadal's all-time record in best-of-five matches in Barcelona, which used to exist: 2-0

Here is Rafael Nadal's all-time record in best-of-five matches in Monte Carlo: 2-0

Here is Rafael Nadal's all-time record in best-of-five matches in Rome: 2-0

Here is Rafael Nadal's all-time record in best-of-five matches in Stuttgart: 1-0.

For the math challenged, that's 111-2 overall.

Rafael Nadal on any surface is oppressive. No one else in tennis imposes their physicality quite the same way that Nadal does. He plants himself roughly 20 yards behind the first row of the crowd behind the baseline and proceeds to chase down every single ball. The disgusting amount of topspin he's able to generate with his forehand forces opponents to retreat themselves, making them cover more ground in turn. His speed and footwork allows him to hit a forehand from virtually anywhere on the court and sometimes even from off the court.

This means he can hit precisely the shot he wants to hit to make you hit precisely the shot he wants you to hit until he decides to end the point, or when you decide to commit tennis suicide and force Rafael Nadal to hit a passing shot. His goal is just as much to inflict as much physical punishment on his opponent as it is to win the point, and he wins a whole lot of points.

All of this is taken to 11 on clay courts, especially the slower-than-average clay found at Roland Garros. Every forehand kicks that much higher, every ball is that much easier to be tracked down, every point takes a little more out of your legs. But seemingly not his legs.

Let's take Nikoloz Basiliashvili as an example. Basiliashvili is a firmly good-not-great tennis player. A few times in his career now he's risen inside the top 20, but he often doesn't stay long. He is a solid clay courter with an about equal ELO rating on hard courts and clay courts. He won a not-insignificant clay title at Hamburg last year. He has now played five sets against Rafael Nadal on clay.

He has been bageled three times and won precisely two games.

First he lost 6-0, 6-1, 6-0 at Roland Garros in 2017 (in a match that he actually played kind of well?) and then lost 6-1, 6-0 in Rome just two weeks ago.

There are great players who at times can get caught out, or at least challenged, by someone outside of the top tier of the rankings. In Roger Federer's magical 2017 year, he lost to 68-year old Tommy Haas! On grass! These things happen to "regular" stars of the game. They do not happen to Rafael Nadal on clay, and they certainly will not happen to him at Roland Garros this year.

Let's talk about other things.

Another tournament, another wildly unequal draw for the women. I know it's random, but Naomi Osaka AND Maria Sakkari and Caroline Garcia AND Madison Keys AND Serena Williams AND Ashleigh Barty in the same quarter? With unseeded players like past champ Jelenja Ostapenko, Vika Azarenka, Sofia Kenin and Danielle Collins in the quarter with them? Good lord. Meanwhile, it's hard to imagine Petra Kvitova, Simona Halep, or Kiki Bertens being challenged until deep into the second week in Paris.

A note on Serena, because all tennis previews must include one. Here's a picture of Serena at Disneyworld.

🤷🏻‍♂️🤷🏻‍♂️🤷🏻‍♂️🤷🏻‍♂️🤷🏻‍♂️ pic.twitter.com/P97jKPGSRw
— Ysaline Bonaventure (@YsaBona) May 23, 2019

Could be a problem.

For as loaded as the WTA is, it's a bit of a different story on clay. A lot of the best on the tour aren't exactly at home on clay. Barty is currently the top rated player by ELO, but is more or less an also-ran on clay. The same can be said of Naomi Osaka, whose power is nerfed a bit by the mud. This opens the door a little wider for Petra Kvitova and Simona Halep to win another slam, but the title will have to be taken from Kiki Bertens' grasp. She's playing at an obscene level and is more comfortable in the dirt than anyone else in the upper echelon of the women's tour.

The men's draw is almost as unbalanced, as Rafael Nadal's toughest competition will be against eating too many croissants during his off days. Dominic Thiem, though, has some roadblocks in the form of Pablo Cuevas and either Fernando Verdasco or Gael Monfils (WHO IS SEEDED 14TH, BECAUSE THE MEN'S TOUR IS IN A DANGEROUS STATE OF DECAY) blocking his way to the quarters. A Roger Federer-Stefanos Tsitsipas meeting can be pencilled in too, and Stefanos would probably be your favorite. But I wouldn't count out Roger making a deep run at Roland Garros this year. The men's tour is somehow weaker than it's been in even its recent weakened state. It's easy to think of Federer as Sampras-esque on clay given his measly one career French Open win, but he's always been good on this surface, just not Rafa good. Best-of-five remains a very different ballgame, and Federer knows it well. Put a cheeky fiver on him to make the finals.

While all this sounds great and exciting, and it is because it is still a slam and that means something, this tournament will be the worst slam in recent memory. For the men, the #NextGen™ still isn't ready to take over. Sascha Zverev has regressed in alarming fashion, Denis Shapovalov can charitably be described as trash on clay, and Hyeon Chung has seemingly died. Get past the Thiem/Rafa/Djokovic tier of clay court power rankings, and you're looking at guys like Guido Pella, Christian Garin, Mario Berrettini, and Fabio Fognini. That doesn't make for an exciting second week.

The WTA will be better than the men's tour, sure, but I'm not sure by how much. I still expect carnage for the seeds and some real nobodies making deep runs, and not the cool, young nobodies who have a future in the game. We're talking some random and forgettable 27-year old with a ranking of, like, 54 making a run and then getting pummeled into oblivion by an elite player. A quick look at the rankings shows Kiki Mladenovic, age 26 and largely forgettable, ranked 53. Her new coach, Sascha Bajin, most recently coached Naomi Osaka during her rise to number one, and has also spent time working with Serena, Azarenka, and Caroline Wozniacki. So, yeah, mark me down for Mladenovic beating 2nd seed Karolina Pliskova and making a go of it before getting annihilated.

Should be a blast.