Breaking down the 2018 US Open men's draw

Aug 25

Aug 25 Breaking down the 2018 US Open men's draw

Before you get too far into the actual body of this article, let me start off with a simple fact.The only three players who can win the US Open are Rafael Nadal, Novak Djokovic and, because I’m feeling generous, Roger Federer.No one else is good or healthy enough to pose any kind of threat.That’s where the journey is going. Let’s imagine how we could get there.

Section 1 Top seed: (1) Rafael Nadal

A long time ago, a Nadal-David Ferrer matchup could have been interesting. Today, it just means a routine three-set win for Nadal as Ferrer edges closer to retirement.Rafa is on some kind of heater this year. He’s 40-3. One of those loses was a withdrawal due to injury, one was a five-set epic against Novak Djokovic, and one was a loss to the second best clay court player on earth.It’d be a shock if someone knocked him out early. Karen Khachanov has some game, but it’d be asking a lot for him to knock off Rafa in full flow. Kyle Edmund is intriguing though. If his serve is clicking, Edmund’s forehand could make Nadal just uncomfortable enough to make that fourth round matchup a little dicey for the Spaniard.Best first round matchup: (18) Jack Sock vs Guido AndreozziUnseeded player most likely to win quarter: None of these guys can beat Rafa, but Nikoloz Basilashvili is pretty goodWinner: (1) Nadal

Section 2 Top seed (5) Kevin Anderson

Kevin Anderson has a whole helluva lot of points to defend here, as he somehow made the finals last year before getting flicked off of Nadal’s shoulder like an ant.He’d be well within his rights to be pretty pissed about how his draw shook out. All of his likely first three opponents have some degree of game. Ryan Harrison has enough game to bother Anderson. If Andrey Rublev is healthy, he could beat Anderson. If Jeremy Chardy hits his top gear, he could beat Anderson. After those first two matches, he’d be palying against the ebullient young don, Denis Shapovalov.It’s heavy sledding for Anderson.I guess Dominic Thiem is in this quarter too. He’s garbage on hard court.Best first round matchup: (28) Denis Shapovalov vs (Q) Felix Auger-AliassimeUnseeded player most likely to win quarter: Andrey RublevWinner: (28) Denis Shapovalov. No, I don’t apologize for being a fanboy.

Section 3:

Top seed: (3) Juan Martin Del Potro

Del Po is hurt.For some reason, he’s a trendy pick to win this week. But, again, he is hurt, and despite this quarter being a joke, he’s not healthy enough to trust.Andy Murray is in this quarter too! Remember him? He was incredible! Then his hip turned into dust and now he’s mega washed.The biggest story though is a potential rekindling of one of the hottest rivalry in all of sports.https://youtu.be/mDX6K7t-JcE“Shut your fuck up” is so iconic.Best first round matchup: (PR) Andy Murray vs (PR) James DuckworthUnseeded player most likely to win quarter: Daniil MedvedevWinner: (15) Stefanos Tsitsipas

Section 4 Top seed: (8) Grigor Dimitrov

Lost in the wall-to-wall coverage of Djokovic’s comeback is the fact that Stan Wawrinka looks really good again.He should have beaten Federer in Cincinnati. He was moving great and still walloping the snot out of the ball from the baseline. Even better news for Wawrinka? He gets to play Grigor Dimitrov who is really struggling this season.John Isner is in this quarter and is the smart pick to win it.I do not care.Best first round matchup: (WC) Wawrinka vs (8) DimitrovUnseeded player most likely to win quarter: (WC) WawrinkaWinner: (WC) Wawrinka

Section 5 Top seed: (7) Marin Cilic

Cilic remains one of the best best-of-five players on tour, despite doing next to nothing of note this year. Since last year’s US Open, he’s gone 15-4 in those matches. For that reason alone, he’s worth keeping a close eye on.There are lots of players in this quarter who are fun. Hubert Hurkacz is an intriguing prospect, Alex de Minaur rules, so does Frances Tiafoe, and Marco Cecchinato might still be match fixing. And yet, I’m wholly unenthused by it.Best first round matchup: Mackie McDonald vs Robin HaaseUnseeded player most likely to win quarter: de MinaurWinner: (7) Cilic

Section 6 Top seed: (4) Alexander Zverev

When is it going to happen for Sascha Zverev?By any reasonable measure, he’s had an incredible year for someone who’s just 21 years old. He’s won 43 times, including three titles, one of which was yet another Masters. He’s firmly in the top five in the world and has an opportunity to add a bunch of points at the end of the year.But at some point it needs to happen at a slam.He’s only made the quarterfinals of one of the four capstone tournaments once in his career, a number outpaced by his confusing losses (getting bageled in the fifth set by Hyeon Chung at the Australian Open this year and by Ernestis Gulbis at Wimbledon certainly stick out). It doesn’t seem to be a fitness issue. Whatever it is, it has about three more slams to get fixed before we label Zverev a best-of-three specialist and not much else.Best first round matchup: Maximilian Marterer vs (21) Kei NishikoriUnseeded player most likely to win quarter: MartererWinner: (21) Nishikori

Section 7 Top seed: (6) Novak Djokovic

Novak is better than the sixth best player in the world, so it’s nice to see he at least got a cushy draw. None of the unseeded players here are all that good, two of the seeded players aren’t playing on their best surface, and one of the seeded players (Lucas Pouille) sucks big time.Djokovic won’t drop a set.Best first round matchup: Victor Troicki vs Tennys SandgrenUnseeded player most likely to win quarter: uhhhhh Joao Sousa I guess?Winner: (6) Djokovic

Section 8 Top seed: (2) Roger Federer

My concerns about Roger Federer at the US Open are exactly what they were at Wimbledon, namely, that he isn’t playing very well.Roger is good enough on serve at this point to get himself wins despite being nowhere near his top gear, but at a slam and in a quarter with dangerous opponents, I don’t think he’s got what it takes.Feel free to believe in Nick Kyrgios, I guess. He’s hurt, but he’s always unfit, and the fifth set breaker is made for him. My favorite idiot son, Fabio Fognini, is here. Benoit Paire is here too. There are a lot of characters, which rocks. I could see Fognini, Kyrgios, and Federer winning this quarter. In that order.Best first round matchup: They’re all trash, but it’d be nice to see how fit Hyeon Chung is against human trash can, Ricardas BerankisUnseeded player most likely to win quarter: Benoit Paire maybe?Winner: (14) Fognini